Employment effects of a payroll tax cut – Evidence from a regional tax subsidy experiment

The Finnish government implemented a temporary exemption from employer social insurance contributions for the employers that are located in high unemployment areas of the Northern Finland. The payroll tax exemption was designed as an experiment that aimed to evaluate employment effects of a regional payroll tax reduction. As a result of the experiment payroll taxes were reduced by 3 – 6 percentage points for three years beginning in January 2003. In this paper we evaluate the employment and wage effects of the regionally targeted payroll tax reduction. We compare the employment and wage changes in the target region to the employment and wage changes in a control region with a similar unemployment rate and industry structure than the target region. As finding an identical control region is not possible, we adopt a matching procedure by choosing, for each firm in the target region, a matched pair from the control region. We perform propensity score matching and use the estimated propensities as balancing scores to create a control group of firms that is similar to the treatment group in all the observable pre-treatment characteristics. We then estimate the effect of the payroll tax reduction using difference-in-differences estimators, essentially comparing employment and wage changes between the matched pairs after the start of the experiment. We report results from both nearest neighbour and kernel matched comparison groups. To enhance the transparency of the evaluation we have created the matched firm pairs from the plant database of Statistics Finland and designed and published the evaluation method before any data on employment or wage outcomes were available in December 2003. We will follow the employment change of the selected firms based on annual tax reports that will be available in March 2004. Detailed information on the wage responses will be added to the report in May 2004 based on the payroll data of the members of The Confederation of Finnish Industry and Employers and The Employers Federation of the Service Industries.

Union membership and the erosion of the Ghent system: Lessons from Finland

Union density declined in Finland by more than 10 percentage points in less than ten years. This paper analyses the reasons behind the decline, using micro data from the 1990s. According to our results, the changes in the composition of the labour force and the changes in the labour market explain about a quarter of this decline. The main reason for the decline appears to be the erosion of the Ghent system, due to the emergence of an independent UI fund that provides unemployment insurance without requiring union membership. Interestingly, we find evidence that the decline in the union density can be attributed to declining inclination of the cohorts born after the early 1960s to become union members.Ghent system, union membership, trade unions

Unintended convergence – how Finnish unemployment reached the European level

Finnish unemployment rose in the early 1990s from 3% to 18% in just four years. It has since fallen back to the average European level, being 9.0% in January 2003. In this paper, we describe the shocks leading to this unforeseen increase in unemployment. We then discuss and research the role of labour market institutions in the adjustment process that has brought unemployment back to a ‘normal’ level. We argue that these institutions cannot be blamed for the increase in unemployment, but that more flexible institutions could have led to a more rapid fall in unemployment once the Finnish economy began to recover.economic crisis; labour market institutions; unemployment

School choice and segregation: evidence from an admission reform

This paper studies the effects of school choice on segregation. We analyze the effect of a reform in Stockholm that changed the admission system of public upper secondary schools. Before the year 2000, students had priority to the school situated closest to where they lived, but from the fall of 2000 and onwards, admission is based on grades only. We show that the distribution of students over schools changed dramatically as a response to extending school choice. As expected, the new admission policy increased segregation by ability. However, segregation by family background, as well as, segregation between immigrants and natives also increased significantly.School choice; segregation

Employment effects of a payroll-tax cut - evidence from a regional tax exemption experiment

In this paper we evaluate the effects of a regional experiment that reduced payroll-taxes by 3–6 percentage points for three years in Northern Finland. We match each firm in the target region with a similar firm in the control region and estimate the effect of the payroll-tax reduction by comparing employment and wage changes within the matched pairs before and after the start of the experiment. According to our results the reduction in the payroll-taxes led to somewhat faster wage growth in the target region. The increase in wages offset roughly half of the impact of the payroll tax cut on the labour costs. The remaining labour cost reduction had no significant effects on employment.Payroll-tax; Labour demand; Tax incidence; Propensity score matching

Leaky Bucket in the Real World: Estimating Inequality Aversion Using Survey Data

Existing evidence of inequality aversion relies on data from class-room experiments where subjects face hypothetical questions. This paper estimates the magnitude of inequality aversion using representative survey data, with questions related to the real-economy situations the respondents face. The results reveal that the magnitude of inequality aversion can be measured in a meaningful way using survey data, but the estimates depend dramatically on the framing of the question. No matter how measured, the revealed inequality aversion predicts opinions on a wide range of questions related to the welfare state, such as the level of taxation, tax progressivity and the structure of unemployment benefits.inequality aversion, social welfare functions, welfare state

The Effect of a Student Aid Reform on Graduation: A Duration Analysis

In this paper we evaluate the changes in the times-to-degree at the Finnish universities in the 1990s. In particular, we evaluate the effect of the 1992 student aid reform that was intended to shorten the duration of university studies. We find that the student aid reform had only a modest effect, and that this effect was limited to the fields with long median durations. Most of the decline in the observed times-to-degree can be explained by an increase in the unemployment rate that reduced student employment opportunities.Times-to-degree; university education; student aid; duration analysis

Changes in Job Stability: Evidence from Lifetime Job Histories

We use lifetime job histories from the pension records to evaluate changes in job stability in Finland between 1963 and 2004. We specify a duration model and estimate the effects of elapsed duration, age, and calendar time on the hazard of job ending using individual-level panel data spanning over four decades. We find that this hazard increased during the recession years in the early 1990s but has now returned to the level that prevailed in the 1970s. We also demonstrate that the fluctuations in the hazard rate together with the changes in labor market entry rates have complicated dynamic effects on the tenure distribution, and that analysing the changes in job stability based on the elapsed duration of ongoing jobs may be quite misleading.job stability, duration model

Minimum wages and youth employment: Evidence from the Finnish retail trade sector

Following an agreement between the trade unions and the employer organisations, Finnish employers could pay less than the existing minimum wage for young workers between 1993 and 1995. We examine the effects of these minimum wage exceptions by comparing the changes in wages and employment of the groups whose minimum wages were reduced with simultaneous changes among slightly older workers for whom the minimum wage regulation was still binding. Our analysis is based on the payroll record data and minimum wage agreements from the retail trade sector over the period 1990-2005. We discover that average wages in the eligible group declined only modestly despite the fact that the excess supply of labour during high unemployment should make it relatively easy to attract workers even with low wages. The minimum wage exceptions had no positive effects on employment.Labour demand; employment; minimum wages; trade unions